Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.111132 0.123869 0.137062 0.151716 0.167504 0.183973 0.202417
2024-10-13 0.090647 0.109367 0.129864 0.153831 0.180945 0.210526 0.245092
2024-10-20 0.075912 0.098367 0.124193 0.155749 0.192916 0.234955 0.285739
2024-10-27 0.064910 0.089770 0.119647 0.157578 0.203804 0.257672 0.324520
2024-11-03 0.060959 0.088900 0.123688 0.169192 0.226118 0.293958 0.379831
2024-11-10 0.053172 0.082052 0.119365 0.169696 0.234338 0.313101 0.414749
2024-11-17 0.047607 0.077391 0.117188 0.172355 0.244853 0.334886 0.453004
2024-11-24 0.042216 0.072290 0.113829 0.172948 0.252349 0.352730 0.486440
2024-12-01 0.040569 0.072323 0.117310 0.182617 0.271756 0.385929 0.539697
2024-12-08 0.039036 0.072305 0.120577 0.191949 0.290819 0.418964 0.593270
2024-12-15 0.035335 0.068535 0.118093 0.192960 0.298461 0.437071 0.627751
2024-12-22 0.030874 0.063069 0.112663 0.189365 0.299462 0.446216 0.650518
2024-12-29 0.029565 0.062853 0.115376 0.198047 0.318339 0.480389 0.707948
2025-01-05 0.027390 0.060973 0.115430 0.202854 0.332002 0.508023 0.757551
2025-01-12 0.025089 0.058615 0.114541 0.206147 0.343551 0.533017 0.804138
2025-01-19 0.022897 0.056188 0.113324 0.208792 0.354138 0.556826 0.849496
2025-01-26 0.023081 0.058256 0.119604 0.223258 0.382373 0.605643 0.929631
2025-02-02 0.020827 0.055320 0.117241 0.223949 0.390143 0.625884 0.970915
2025-02-09 0.019222 0.053478 0.116586 0.227246 0.401790 0.651706 1.020191
2025-02-16 0.017388 0.050919 0.114461 0.227986 0.409476 0.671920 1.061888
2025-02-23 0.017285 0.052072 0.119022 0.239851 0.434419 0.717263 1.139276
2025-03-02 0.017115 0.053046 0.123267 0.251270 0.458853 0.762176 1.216558
2025-03-09 0.015658 0.050904 0.121566 0.252506 0.467320 0.783845 1.261082